International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
Latin America and the Caribbean   

Newsletter ISDR Inform - Latin America and the Caribbean
Issue: 13/2006- 12/2006 - 11/2005 - 10/2005 - 9/2004 - 8/2003 - 7/2003 - 6/2002 - 5/2002 - 4/2001- 3/2001

Disasters in the Region

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Hurricane Season 2002

Experts at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expect that this year’s hurricane season in the Atlantic, which began officially on 1 June and should end by 30 November, will probably be normal or slightly above the historical average.

In total, they anticipate between nine and 13 tropical storms, of which six to eight will turn into hurricanes, and two to three into severe hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Zafir-Simpson Scale.

The following table summarizes the forecast.

Storm strength
2002 Forecast Historical Averages
(Gray, December 2001) (1950-2000)
Named tropical storms
13
9
Tropical storms
5
4
Hurricanes
8
6
Severe hurricanes
4
2

This estimate may change based on changes in climate conditions in the course of the year.


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